Not Enough Children for Schools

We know that all developed countries are facing the problem of low birth rate. This led to a demographic shift with less young people working but more old people demanding health care and welfare. We anticipate long term impact to the economy.

But some problems will surface much sooner. With less children born, there will be less demand for schools and teachers. This is already happening. Demographic change leads to structural decline in school enrollment. If you aspire to become an educator, think twice. It will be a tough market in the coming years.

The San Francisco school district has been facing a major budget deficit for years. After much torment, it has worked out a plan to close and merge some under enrolled schools. Only to have mayor London Breed abruptly torpedoed the plan. The result is that the problem is left unsolved, the budget still not balanced. Now the school board is timidly bringing back the topic of “reorganizing schools”, going through the same pain that had already gone through for the 2024 plan. Without enough children enrolling, no financial or political gimmick could have saved San Francisco.

Declining enrollment is also affecting college. San Francisco State has reported a decline of 26% in ten years. Cal State East Bay has lost 30%. While the Trump administration’s hostility to foreign students deepens the problem, the decline is long in the making and is unlikely to be reversed.

An implication is that, colleges are soon going to compete for students. For the longest time, college education is a privilege. Students strive to excel academically, commit to extracurricular interests, and get the best recommendations for the best chance to get into college. The table will soon turn. Colleges must invest in marketing and outreach to acquire enough students while they are under pressure to trim their payroll and programs to balance their budget. Students of tomorrow will have a much wider choice and much lower admittance requirement.

Strange as it seems, the story of the next thirty years has already been written. The demographic shift is as certain as the sun will rise.