Chile Baby Bust
Last time I talked about India. Their total fertility rate has already fallen below replacement level even as their rise to become the most populous country. India is still early in this process. The growth is slowing down, but it will continue for a few more decades. Another country that caught my eyes is Chile.
Chile has a population of 20 million. It has doubled from 50 years ago. But Chile’s total fertility rate is now 1.2, just below Japan’s. As recent as 2020, it was still at 2.0, 50% higher than Japan at the time. It is coming down alarmingly fast. (Source: World Bank via FRED®)
The population structure is ominous. This chart above is called the population pyramid. It is supposed to be in a pyramid shape with a wide base. A teardrop shape is a bad sign. Chile’s top cohort is about 34. Today, the newborn babies are only half the size of that cohort. In 1990, the country peaked in natural growth with 200,000 more births than deaths. It fell to 40,000 in 2021. Soon this number will be negative.
The quickest fix will be immigration. This too leads to social problems and political pushback. The recent influx of Venezuelan immigrants causes unease in the local population. They are blamed for gangs and organized crime. This is the defining issue when Chileans are going to vote for the new president and parliament today. Both the far left and far right candidates make fighting crime a major priority.
Today, there are 1.9 million foreign born living in Chile. This is about 10% of the population (compared to the US’s 16%). This is a 40% jump from just five years ago. Venezuelans are by far the largest group and the fastest growing group.
As I have said in the Canada immigration, controlled immigration at a proper level can be beneficial for the host country. But a rapid and uncontrolled influx of migrants will destabilize the society and prompt pushback. Chile is at the juncture to fine tune its policy, with the right wing pushing for severe restrictions.
What will the country become in the next 30 years? The fertility decline seems irreversible. Immigration, even if it is politically desirable at current level, can only slow the decline but not completely solve it. Chilean society of the future will be quite different from what they have grown up in.